This microbook is a summary/original review based on the book: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. 11. One of the giants of behavioral science reveals how to improve at predicting the future." — ADAM GRANT, New York Times bestselling author of Give and Take "Good judgment and good forecasting are rare, but they turn out to be made of teachable skills. S. K. Numrich, PhD, CMSP . So switch your "Ten Commandments of Superforecasting" bookmark to this post's url. … Foresight isn't a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. 11. intriguing and influential book . The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom . He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. This is a linkpost reproducing this AI Impacts blog post. The title of his latest book, Superforecasting (Crown), which he co-authored with Dan Gardner, foreshadows the answer: "superforecasters" do, in fact, walk among us - and despite their lack . So switch your "Ten Commandments of Superforecasting" bookmark to this post's url. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. Tim Harford. So, treat these commandments as such. Tetlock intends to test the effectiveness of this idea in future research. snumrich@ida.org . "It is impossible to lay down binding rules," Helmuth von Moltke warned, "because two cases will never be exactly the same." (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments: . It gives all kinds of life lessons about humility, having confidence and seeking out diverse and opposing viewpoints. . Read Superforecasting book reviews & author details and more at Amazon.in. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. Amazon.in - Buy Superforecasting book online at best prices in India on Amazon.in. And if there was a one sentence summary of what to do exactly, if you´re going to be a superforecaster, it was "Don´t treat commandments as commandments." [2, p.285]. The more famous… The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. The casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its message."-Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of The Better Angels of Our Nature "Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting is a common-sense guide to thinking about decision-making and the future by a man who knows this terrain like no one else." The Ten Commandments of Superforecasting are: Focus your time and effort on forecasts that will prove rewarding. Book Review. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. While you're looking at those slides, I'll just say one other thing briefly. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Crown Publishers, 2015) argues that "it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills. -- Tim Harford Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction. Eight Commandments of Superforecasting 18 "More often forecasts are made and then… nothing. Get this from a library! Superforecasting is a must-read book for everyone who is sick to death of "the guru model that makes so many policy debates so puerile: 'I'll counter your Paul Krugman polemic with my Niall . Commandment 11: Don't treat commandments as commandments. Join us at one of Good Judgment's interactive workshops to discover how we won a massive US government-sponsored geopolitical forecasting tournament and generated forecasts that were 30% more accurate than those produced by intelligence community analysts with access to classified information. Final Notes. Don't treat commandments as commandments "Guidelines are the best we can do in a world where . Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Conclusion. Note: If you wanted to point out there was a link to these ten commandments from this Slate Star Codex post, that link is dead. Both are available to download as lecture notes. Superforecasting (Part 4) — Tetlock's next six commandments . Superforcasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction, and its everyday uses. Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin . But pinning them down to a time-frame and discrete future event is often next to impossible, so you can never determine whether they were right or wrong. There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting. Phillip Tetlock's book Superforecasting outlines the thinking process of the best forecasters in the world. Shelves: psychology-behaviour, data-information-tech, math, united-states-of-america. The Ten Commandments Of Forecasting Tetlock and Gardner's book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is an excellent and fascinating read into the obstacles we face in making predictions and the steps we can take to improve our success. Read it. Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. Those of us who work for the military in some capacity are well aware of the emphasis placed on lessons learned. By Stan Clark - Senior Investment Advisor. So switch your "Ten Commandments of Superforecasting" bookmark to this post's url. Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments. For this set of questions, guessing randomly (assigning even odds to all possibilities) would yield a Brier score of 0.53. Most important take-away: don't take 'experts' too seriously, especially not the famous ones. There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting. The Superforecasters were assessed according to Brier scores. There seems to be a lot of it. The casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its message."--Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of The Better Angels of Our Nature "Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting is a common-sense guide to thinking about decision-making and the future by a man who knows this terrain like no one . Also remember that practice is not just going through the motions of making forecasts, or casually reading the news and tossing out probabilities. Free delivery on qualified orders. SUPERFORECASTING "Superforecasting is a rare book that will make you smarter and wiser. Which means no revision. Enlightening, but certainly not in the sense of a . Don't treat commandments as commandments. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments . It's got this handy pull-out: 11 Commandments of Superforecasting. Useful, articulate and well-researched, Superforecasting. There seems to be a lot of it. List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of "Superforecasting". Also remember that practice is not just going through the motions of making forecasts, or casually reading the news and tossing out probabilities. Forbes. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is dedicated to understanding these superforecasters and exploring how an average person might become one of them. While we have great trust in our strategies, we personally verify each buy and sell, ensuring the data is accurate, before taking action. It is difficult to lay down binding rules. Aspects of critical phenomena. Bloomberg View 11 • Insurers rely on accurate . The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. Unpack problems to expose assumptions, catch mistakes, and correct biases. So switch your "Ten Commandments of Superforecasting" bookmark to this post's url. Also remember that practice is not just going through the motions of making forecasts, or casually reading the news and tossing out probabilities. The Ten Commandments Of Forecasting Tetlock and Gardner's book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is an excellent and fascinating read into the obstacles we face in making predictions and the steps we can take to improve our success. Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. He is the Chief Risk Officer of AQR—American Quantitative Research—and it's an example of how a smart senior executive could use the superforecasting ten commandments to solve problems that he or she cares about. "Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters." In Superforecasting, 277-85. 4.07 (16,974 ratings by Goodreads) Paperback. show more. The book is an inspiring read. Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments. So most forecasters did significantly better than that. I sent by email an article that Aaron Brown wrote. 11. No two forecasting scenarios will be the same. Superforcasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction, and its everyday uses. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. . There seems to be a lot of it. This post is itself a longer and richer version of the concise summary given in this AI Impacts page. * New York Times Book Review * Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms. Truly, an essential reading. The 11 Commandments of Supreme Forecasting. Machines may get better at "mimicking human meaning," and thereby better at predicting human behavior, but "there's a difference between mimicking and reflecting meaning and originating meaning," David Ferrucci said. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. [Philip E Tetlock; Dan Gardner] -- "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Note: If you wanted to point out there was a link to these ten commandments from this Slate Star Codex post, that link is dead. "It is impossible to lay down binding rules," Helmuth von Moltke warned, "because two cases will never be exactly the same." Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. "Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters." In Superforecasting, 277-85. Penguin Random House Company, 2015. The training and Tetlock's commandments. In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Good Judgment co-founder Philip Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner summarize the Good Judgment Project research findings in the form of "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters."These commandments describe behaviors that have been "experimentally demonstrated to boost . Philip came up with 11 methodical commandments that can be followed to attain supreme forecasting skills: "Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters." In Superforecasting, 277-85. ABSTRACT . Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow Superforecasting is a rare book that will make you smarter . Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. And without revision, there can be no improvement" There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. supports our disciplined, objective approach to selecting stocks. For a review of Superforecasting, the popular book written on the subject, . (Superforecasting 263) The idea is to take the question you really want to answer and look for more precise questions that are evidentially relevant to the question you care about. Accuracy is seldom determined after the fact…So there is no measurement. In all, "Superforecasting" was a highly . Don't treat commandments as commandments: There are no firm rules that apply to any case. Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. Like all other known forms of expertise, superforecasting is the product of deep, deliberative practice. Superforecasting is the wonderful story of how he and his research team got ordinary people to beat experts in a very serious game. It contains the Ten Commandments of Superforecasting, a summary of the 60-minute tutorial that improved forecasting tournament participants' performance by 10%. Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction. Institute for Defense Analyses . "If people . The GJP is a team of researchers who competed in an IARPA funded forecasting tournament. You save US$0.44. As stated above, a certain mindset combined with a resolute feedback environment led to extraordinary results. "Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters." In Superforecasting, 277-85. In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner tease out a number of important qualities of superforecasters: Philosophic Outlook = Cautious, Humble, Nondeterministic. In year 2, we beat the control group by 78%. As the appendix to the book, Tetlock included "10 Commandments for Aspiring . "It is impossible to lay down binding rules," Helmuth von Moltke warned, "because two cases will never be exactly the same." Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 01 by Tetlock, Philip, Gardner, Dan (ISBN: 0787721973942) from Amazon's Book Store. In year 1, [the Good Judgment Project] beat the official control group by 60%. Alexandria, VA . By (author) Philip Tetlock , By (author) Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: Proven Practices for Leveraging Human Ingenuity . Readers who don't have time to read the post are encouraged to read the page instead or at least first. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the . Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments. Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. 2020 Paper No. * Forbes * There isn't a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil Tetlock. It also provides great Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Shelves: psychology-behaviour, data-information-tech, math, united-states-of-america. As you can see from 11, this is half-hearted advice. 12min Tip 16 Page 1 of 11 . There isn't a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil Tetlock. Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.'. Penguin Random House Company, 2015. SUPERFORECASTING "Superforecasting is a rare book that will make you smarter and wiser. The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. 11 Commandments For Predicting the Future (2min read) The talking heads on TV give such a convincing story about what the future holds that its hard not to believe them. English. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments . One of the giants of behavioral science reveals how to improve at predicting the future." — ADAM GRANT, New York Times bestselling author of Give and Take "Good judgment and good forecasting are rare, but they turn out to be made of teachable skills. Learn Superforecasting from the Pros. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, details the findings of the ongoing Good Judgment Project. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. New York Times Book Review "Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms." Forbes "There isn't a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil Tetlock." -- Tim Harford "Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction." There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments. US$13.25 US$13.69. There seems to be a lot of it. GJP also beat its university-affiliated competitors, including the Uniersity of Michigan and MIT, by hefty margins, from 30% to 70%, and even . Figure 0: The "four main determinants of forecasting accuracy." 1 Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP . Penguin Random House Company, 2015. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. The Times. Note: If you wanted to point out there was a link to these ten commandments from this Slate Star Codex post, that link is dead. . Links are given on the course webpage Landau and Lifshitz, Statistical Physics Russian style: terse, encyclopedic, magni cent. " Superforecasting , by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, is one of the most interesting business and finance books published in 2015." - John Kay, The Financial Times "One of Tetlock's key points is that these aren't innate skills: they can be both taught and learned. The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. Note: If you wanted to point out there was a link to these ten commandments from this Slate Star Codex post, that link is dead. Dubbed "the most important scientific study… on prediction" by The Bloomberg View, "Superforecasting" is brimful of thought-provoking scientific discoveries and unforgettably entertaining tales. Another option: Think like a forecaster. Penguin Random House Company, 2015. They are very prone to looking at the world through the lens of a so-called hedgehog: there is only one truth and reality has to adapt to it. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. Tetlock has even demonstrated an inversed correlation between fame and accuracy. It opens up, and creates an awareness of the different dimensions of how one might manage contexts of uncertainty, change and probability. This month we continue our discussion of Philip E. Tetlock's .
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